Convictions

Equities in the global trade rewiring

Understand the latest trends in global and US equities

Equities Best ideas h2 2025 cover

Key investment implications:

In a nutshell

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  • Tariffs are poised to negatively affect import-dependent sectors significantly. US industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals will face margin pressures from elevated input costs. Similarly, European sectors heavily reliant on US markets, including healthcare  certain industrial segments, and technology, may experience earnings pressure.
     
  • Domestically focused and service-oriented sectors hold better ground. In the US, Europe, and Japan, investors continue to reward areas with earnings protected from global trade risks. European and Japanese P/E ratios have recovered from multi-year lows to average levels, reflecting steady investor interest in sectors with earnings protected from global trade risks.
     
  • Balancing cyclicals with defensive sectors will help mitigate tariff-induced volatility. Financial and communication services are preferred for their lower exposure to tariff disruptions, with utilities acting as a strategic hedge.
     
  • Key Themes for H2 2025 include Artificial Intelligence (AI), European defence initiatives, infrastructure investments, ongoing deregulation measures in the US, and corporate governance reforms at the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

  • European mid-caps offer strong potential, benefiting from strategic investments in infrastructure and defence. These domestically oriented companies continue  to trade at attractive valuations despite delivering stronger earnings growth compared to their large-cap peers.
     
  • Japanese equities present compelling tactical opportunities, particularly among high-dividend and value-oriented companies. Smaller firms also stand to benefit from ongoing corporate reforms and favourable currency dynamics driven by the Tokyo Stock Exchange initiatives.
     
  • Companies with resilient margins that can absorb tariff impacts will remain attractive, underpinning a broader strategy focused on businesses capable of navigating a complex macroeconomic environment.
Valuations in Europe are compelling vs RoW
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Monica Defend

Monica Defend

Head of Amundi Investment Institute

Despite unpredictable policymaking, business resilience, and the reorganisation of global trade and financial systems, the expected rate cuts from central banks will create opportunities in global equities. We are focusing on themes such as European defence spending, US deregulation, corporate governance reform in Japan, and the ‘Make in India’ initiative.

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute

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*Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.

Source: Amundi Investment Institute, Mid-Year Outlook - Ride the policy noise and shifts, June 2025.
 

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Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and is as of September 2025. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management S.A.S. and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results.

Date of first use: September 2025

Doc ID: 4744936