A more fragmented Emerging Markets world amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis

Monday 28 March 2022

While the uncertainty persists and the final outcome of the war is still difficult to anticipate, we believe that macro fundamentals will be impacted through indiscriminately higher inflation together with more subdued growth and deteriorating fiscal conditions, particularly for commodity importers. That said, an overall higher inflation, when many central banks in EM were approaching the end of their tightening cycles, will raise the probability of prolonging the tightening phase further and challenging the next monetary policy path.

The economic damage from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has made the Emerging Markets (EM) outlook more uncertain