- High import prices could affect consumer spending and dampen growth.
- Tariffs are putting pressure on US corporate earnings.
- Trade policy uncertainty makes Fed’s task harder.
- China will need to pivot to domestic consumption for growth.
Months
May 2025
4 themes driving markets:
2025_05_ Monthly Market Views - EN Long
4 themes driving markets:
April 2025
4 themes driving markets:
2025_04- Monthly Market Views - EN Long
4 themes driving markets:
- Germany's fiscal shift and the EU's defence push.
- Tariffs threaten US growth more than inflation.
- Trade policy uncertainty makes Fed’s task harder.
- China's fiscal support boosts sentiment.
March 2025
4 themes driving markets:
2025_03 - Monthly Market Views - EN Long
4 themes driving markets:
- Markets remain highly sensitive to inflation.
- Global growth to remain reasonably resilient.
- Europe supported by a clearer ECB path.
- China aims to avoid a disruptive trade war.
February 2025
4 themes driving markets:
2025_02_ Monthly Market Views - EN Long
4 themes driving markets:
- US trade tariffs are introducing uncertainty.
- Central banks’ actions remain in focus.
- China weighing the timing and size of fiscal policy.
- Geopolitics is driving commodity dynamics.
January 2025
4 themes driving markets:
2025_01_Monthly Market Views - EN Long
4 themes driving markets:
- US policy to drive short term growth amid trade tensions.
- Central banks to balance rate cuts with inflation concerns.
- Geopolitical shifts present risks and opportunities in Asia.
- Concentration risk favours opportunities in mid-caps.
December 2024
4 themes driving markets:
2024_12 - Monthly Market Views-EN Long
4 themes driving markets:
-
Fed to reassess policy easing speed and timing;
-
New policies could stimulate short term US growth;
-
Europe balancing fiscal rules with productivity investments;
-
China signals expansionary measures amid tariff concerns.